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As the Soviets Prepare for War:

The Expanding US/Soviet Military Gap

Taken from the McAlvany Intelligence Advisor Fall 1989

On September 23, Donald S. McAlvany, Editor of The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor attended a conference which was addressed by Senator Malcolm Wallop (R-WY), in which the Senator described the ominous and growing military gap between America and the Soviet Union. As he pointed out, while the Soviets are talking peace, partnership, glasnost/perestroika, liberalization, and disarmament (and indeed, as America responds by disarming), Moscow is conducting the biggest military buildup in world history. The question Wallop proposed is — for what? Why does an economic basketcase like the USSR spend 23% to 28% of its GNP on the military (four times the percent of GNP spent by America), while it "claims" to be "waging peace"?

The Senator observed that the present and past administrations have lied to the American people regarding the growing military gap, and that the present US arms control craze is simply unilateral disarmament and appeasement, which could eventuate in America's national suicide. He pointed out the Soviets presented $300 million per month military aid to Afghanistan over the past 7 months (i.e., $2.1 billion) and continuing military aid to Nicaragua (i.e., $1 billion over the past 12 months) in spite of Gorbachev's promise to halt such aid, is strong evidence of the Soviets continuing strategy of global expansion, as is their aid to the Communist New Peoples' Army in the Philippines and their support for Communist liberation groups all over the world.

1. US and Soviet Military Force Comparisons

Senator Wallop quoted from a recent report by the highly respected Committee on the Present Danger (CPD) which points out that the US is worse off entering the 1990s than it was the 1980s, contrary to the rhetoric of the Reagan and Bush Administrations. The US Department of Defense report, SOVIET MILITARY POWER 1988, highlighted the following Soviet to US weapons procurement ratios between 1978 and '87: Submarines — 2 to 1; Tanks — 3 to 1; other Armored vehicles — 4-1/2 to 1; Bombers — 4 to 1; ICBMs/SLBMs — 4-1/2 to 1; SAMS — 6-1/2 to 1; Artillery, Mortars, multiple Rocket Launchers — 8-1/2 to 1.

Other details (outlined in the CPD report) Senator Wallop found equally ominous: "Four major Soviet tank production facilities produced over 40,000 tanks during that period ('78 - '87); production of self-propelled field artillery is at an all-time high; high tech fighter/attack aircraft are being produced at a rate twice as great as in the US; since 1981, the Soviet Union has completed the series production of its fourth generation ICBM force plus significant numbers of its fifth generation force, and follow-on systems to both generations will soon be produced.

"The Soviets also carry out extensive strategic defense force programs, both in research and development and in production and deployment, that overshadow the US Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) program. And they have developed an extensive network of hardened, deep underground shelters that is still being expanded (and which probably consumes more than 2% of Soviet gross national product). Further, the Soviet investment in space — an aspect of rapidly expanding importance to the military balance — is truly massive, with more than 90 percent of all Soviet launches of a military nature and embracing the world's only orbiting permanent space station.

"During the Reagan Administration, according to Soviet Military Power, Soviet Ground Forces expanded in size and structure, readiness, sustainability, survivability, and command-and-control capability. The Soviets now have some 315 active divisions and numerous independent regiments and brigades. The Red Army has more divisions in Czechoslovakia (5) than the United States has divisions in all of Europe (4) and almost as many in East Germany (17) as the total of active US divisions worldwide (18). Although Warsaw Pact divisions normally consist of fewer personnel than NATO divisions, their greater firepower gives them a critical advantage."

(EDITOR'S NOTE: Communist Cuba now has a larger standing army than the US.)


Soviets Issue 'Pre-War' Threat to Europe

by Nicholas F. Benton

Soviet Foreign Minister Shevardnadze

Washington, D.C. September 30 (CNS) - Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze followed his "Wyoming summit" with U.S. Secretary of State James Baker by issuing one of the most threatening speeches by a Soviet leader since the days of Stalin.

Speaking at the United Nations in New York September 26, Shevardnadze attacked, among other things, Western "revanchism" long a Soviet code-word for West Germany, and also denounced "selfish nationalism".

Every one who heard it, knew that Shevardnadze's tirade was a menacing war-threat against West Germany, as well as against the captive nations of the Baltic who want Western support — which support Secretary Baker promised to deny them when he met with his Russian opposite number in Wyoming last week.

So much for those in the U.S. who have deluded themselves that the "Cold War" is over.

West Germany Shocked

The West German U.N. delegation was deeply shocked by Shevardnadze's remarks. According to press accounts, Foreign Minister Hans Dietrich Genscher hurriedly rewrote his planned address before the U.N. General Assembly, removing all "sensitive" passages in an effort to "de-escalate" the situation by appeasing the Russians.

West Germany has incurred the acute displeasure of Moscow by continuing to accept the flood of refugees fleeing the Communist German Democratic Republic; under the West German constitution, these refugees are, by birthright, entitled to citizenship in the Federal Republic — and under international law, they have the right to leave East Germany.

Foreign Minister Genscher avoided any direct response to the Shevardnadze attacks, telling diplomats and the press that he would rather "bring it up in the private meeting with Shevardnadze" afterward.

After that encounter, Genscher tried to put a polite face on the situation by informing the press, "All irritations have been removed," and insisting "German-Soviet relations are, overall, developing in a satisfactory way."

Dangerous Straits

The U.S. media grossly misrepresented Shevardnadze's speech as an enthusiastic response to President Bush's call to reduce the world's chemical weapons stockpiles.

"The ship of our world has not yet cleared the dangerous straits. It is coming up against new threats; that could give it a critical lurch," Shevardnadze said, in remarks that were edited out of the New York Times'transcript of the speech.

Shevardnadze's remarks were not lost on the Europeans, however. TheLondon Times headlined its article, "Shevardnadze Warning on Nazi-Style Europe Threat," and noted the "dark tenor" of his remarks.

The French newspaper Le Monde said that Shevardnadze's attack on "revanchism" bore "a pre-World War II intonation."

In the International Herald Tribune, columnist Joseph Fitchett wrote that Shevardnadze's speech was "the strongest public warning yet" by the Soviet leadership against possible Western moves that could destabilize the Warsaw Pact and "reflected growing Soviet concern about unrest in Eastern Europe and an increased risk of instability that could undermine cooperation in East-West relations."

Ugly Nationalism

In his speech, Shevardnadze said, "Fascism is the extreme and the ugliest form of nationalism. German Nazism marched under the standard of revanchism. Now that the forces of revanchism are again becoming active and are seeking to revise and destroy the post-war realities in Europe, it is our duty to warn those who willingly or unwillingly encourage those forces. The revanchism movement is dangerous and hostile to the march of peace."

He added, "Those who want to prosper at the expense of others do not see that their own existence is also threatened ... (No people must) lock itself in the dark rooms of national selfishness."

The London Times commented that, among other things, Shevardnadze "clearly addressed the unrest inside his own country."

In his International Herald Tribune article, Fitchett quoted a Western diplomat that the speech "was a reminder that the Soviets still see East Germany as essential for their security. Others said they saw in Shevardnadze's remarks "a wider message for the West. His speech points to the end of Soviet passivity about developments in Eastern Europe."

A British official commented, "The Soviets are signaling that we are approaching some still undefined but dangerous line they've drawn in the sand."

A French official told Fitchett, "For months, Soviet leaders have been saying privately during visits to the West that Moscow is sitting on a powder keg and the explosion will hurt all of us."


Soviet Arms Production

Executive Intelligence Review Oct. 20, 1989

In 1989, more new models of aircraft have entered serial production than in any year since the war. These include the Su-27 "Flanker" modern fighter-interceptor; the giant An-225 air transport, capable of carrying 300 tons, and of transporting the Buran space shuttle; several new medium-sized air transports; and new attack and transport helicopters. Alongside this, production of MiG-31 and MiG-29 interceptors has been heavily stepped up (the latter one also for export).

For the Strategic Rocket Forces, full production rates have been realized for the SS-25 and giant SS-24 rail-mounted mobile ICBMs. Every year, another Typhoon-class giant nuclear missile submarine is launched and enters service; a second production line has been opened for modern Akula-class nuclear attack/cruise missile submarines. Two wholly new tank models, the FST-1 and FST-2 are being produced for the Army (starting in 1989, the FST-1 production rate is 1,500 per annum).


Tank Armor

(Reuter 10/2)

The USSR is bolting 3 layers of explosive-reaction armor boxes on its T-72 tanks to counter US antitank weapons, says Rep. Les Aspin. His House Armed Services Committee learned that "nasty surprise" during its tour of Soviet military installations in August. He termed it "bad news" for forces planning to defend against these tanks with current weapons.


Soviet Weapons

Washington Times, 9/29, A - 3; Arizona Republic, 10/4, A - 16

Big weapons are still plentiful. "In the strategic forces, I've seen absolutely no diminution of their development, procurement, and deployment. None at all," says a senior Bush Administration official, on condition he not be identified. The Reds are still producing 1,000 tanks per month and a new submarine every 5 weeks.


New East German Boss Vows 'China Solution'

October 18 (EIRNS) - "We will implement the Beijing solutions immediately, if we are confronted with a counterrevolution." So stated Egon Krenz of East Germany in a recent speech. Today, Egon Krenz was named to succeed Erich Honecker as head of East Germany's Communistic Socialist Unity Party (SED).

Krenz takes power in a crisis-wracked country, where mass demonstrations against the SED Government are becoming almost a weekly occurrence. While refugees stream out to the West, riots are widely anticipated for this spring, and that includes the prognosis of a secret report of the Soviet KGB. Egon Krenz, who has headed the state security services (Stasi) since 1983, is the KGB's man to crush those protests and keep East Germany inside the Soviet Empire.